Le blog de Daniel Warner

Austerity or growth? Worry about the debt or create jobs? These are two questions that economists and politicians are debating. The voters in the recent French election, voters in the upcoming U.S. presidential election, the people in the streets of Athens, Madrid and elsewhere are answering these questions in their own way. Behind these choices are serious attitude differences about what to do in a crisis.

Austerity amounts to turning inward, not being confident that by reaching out and spending more wealth will be created. The assumption behind austerity is pessimistic and negative: doing less will do more; cutting taxes will lead to more liquidity which will lead to more spending which will create more jobs. Those who favor austerity tell us: "We are in a crisis; there is a large debt; government spending got us there, therefore reduce government spending.".

Binary distinctions are one of the easiest ways to see the world. Insider or outsider, with us or against us, friend or enemy. Even in technology, one can do a great deal of computer programming using only the numbers 0 and 1. How simple, how elegant, how comprehensible.

Unfortunately, the world as it is very often cannot be reduced to simplistic reductionism. Take the current crisis between the United States and China. This week will see the annual economic and strategic dialogue between the two countries. High level U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Secretary of Treasury Tim Geithner, are in Beijing to meet with their counterparts. This dialogue process is a most positive development in the often contentious relations between the two countries. Regular meetings among top officials can only be applauded.

Mass killer Anders Behrig Breivik is fighting in Norwegian court to be considered sane. Originally considered criminally insane, he was later judged to be sane and responsible for his actions.  Admitting to killing 77 people in a bombing and youth camp massacre, he said that no one would have asked for a psychiatric examination if he had been a "bearded jihadist". Two psychiatric examinations have reached different conclusions about his mental state.

The Norwegian Board of Forensic Medicine has asked for additional information from the two psychiatrists who found him sane. Jon Hestnes, who heads a support group for victim's families and survivors, was quoted as saying, "He's not in our world".

In the April 2 edition of the International Herald Tribune, the global edition of the New York Times, Henry Kissinger wrote an op-ed piece entitled "Defining a U.S. role in the Arab Spring". (Disclaimers: Henry Kissinger was raised in the Washington Heights section of the Bronx; I was raised in the Van Cortlandt Park section, further to the North. We both have PhDs in international relations.) For a host of reasons, nothing Dr. Kissinger writes is without interest, and an examination of one or two of his assumptions is quite revealing. When Henry speaks, those in power listen, while those out of power merely deconstruct.

I have recently been to the United States twice in the last three weeks. There was passion for the finals of the college basketball season. There is passion for the finals of the professional hockey season, professional basketball season and the beginning of the baseball season. People were glued to their televisions to watch the Masters Golf Tournament to see if Tiger Woods would win again. What I didn't see was passion for the November presidential election. Why?

The obvious answer is that the election will take place in November; seven months is an eternity in politics. While there was some excitement during the Republican primaries with a series of candidates - Bachmann, Cain, Gingrich, Paul, Santorum- challenging Mitt Romney, there was no real passion behind the candidates. Mostly the rhetoric was either Anyone but Romney or Anybody but Obama.

On the Democratic side, President Obama has not been able to maintain the excitement of 2008. He has certainly had some accomplishments, but the soaring speeches of his campaign, the narrative of the first African-American as President have not been translated into a genuine transformation. This is not to say that all the blame should be placed on the President's shoulders, but merely to note that his 50% popularity ratings should be higher at this point for a sitting President.

Just as the Republicans have accepted Romney with considerable reservations, the Democrats are set to rally behind Obama, but the thrill is gone. The young who left school to ring doorbells for candidate Obama are and will be less present in 2012.

The Presidential election in the United States traditionally has been a global story. After all, historically, it has been the choosing of the leader of the free world. Perhaps another reason for the lack of passion is a realization that whoever wins will have a limited role in world affairs as well as limited options domestically. The unipolar world seems well past and perhaps with it the importance of the U.S. President.

The Head of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation recently announced that he was seriously considering stopping the English radio channel or putting it up for sale. According to Roger de Weck, World Radio Switzerland (WRS) was no longer a priority for the state subsidized television and radio conglomerate since English was not a national language. (Disclaimer: I am a regular contributor to WRS.) Money was not a consideration since the station represented a tiny percentage of the overall budget.

Two recent tragic events highlight the error in jumping to conclusions until all the facts are well known. The shooting of teenager Trayvon Martin in Florida appeared to be a simple case where a white vigilante shot and killed a black youth prowling an upscale neighborhood. Even President Obama declared that if he had had a son, he would have looked like Trayvon. In the second case, Mohammad Merah, dubbed an Al Qaeda fanatic, murdered seven people including 4 Jews in Toulouse and was finally gunned down after a 32 hour siege with hundreds of police. President Sarkozy condemned the killer promising to pass stricter laws against terrorists and religious fanatics. Both President Obama and President Sarkozy, it should be noted, are in the midst of election campaigns.

The Swiss recently voted to reject 6 weeks of vacation. One of the arguments for the referendum was increased stress in the workplace.           We are becoming more and more conscious of the relationship between our emotional state and our decision-making capacities. A famous example of the effects of stress happened during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Late into the night during a Cabinet meeting, President Kennedy asked what the United States should do. The answers from around the table were overwhelmingly in favor of bombing Cuba, which could have started a nuclear war with the Soviet Union. Kennedy finally turned to his brother, Bobby, who suggested that they all go to bed and reflect. The next morning when the President took another round of opinion, everyone favored an embargo. The lesson is that fatigue and stress can change our perceptions and decisions.

The recent Swiss vote on secondary homes was an excellent example of people voting for regional interests. The city cantons voted to limit "cold beds," the mountain, tourist regions voted overwhelmingly not to impose quotas. The maps showing the results were clearly divided. In a federal system, it is often difficult to balance specific geographic or linguistic interests with the national interest; the tensions are inherent. The losers in Valais are screaming against imposition from Bern, just as the states' rights people in the United States are adamant about any impositions from Washington.

Kofi Annan has recently been in Syria. The former United Nations Secretary General's mandate from the UN and the Arab League is to reduce the violence if not convince President Assad to relinquish power. A ceasefire and/or allowing humanitarian relief to the stricken were also on the agenda. Having seen other attempts at mediation fail, the international community called upon Mr. Annan to try to convince the Syrian leaders to radically alter their behavior.

One man alone, with enormous prestige including a Nobel Peace Prize, went to Damascus to dialogue with the Syrian authorities and their stubborn leader. Other presidents in the region when confronted with similar outbreaks chose to step down from power. Mouammar Kadhafi was killed, Hosni Mubarak is in prison. For the moment, President Assad has not budged. On the contrary, he seems more determined than ever to crush the opposition even while the negotiations are going on.

We will never know what exactly transpired between Mr. Annan and the Syrian authorities. Mr. Annan said he was "cautiously optimistic" after the two meetings during which he presented "concrete proposals".  We do not know the historic relations between the two men, nor the exact nature of the types of proposals Mr. Annan was allowed to present. After all, he was sent with a mandate from two international organizations and was not negotiating only on his behalf. His wriggle room was most circumscribed. We can only try to imagine what was said.

Did Kofi Annan threaten air attacks? Did he say that the international community would arm the rebels? Did he promise clemency with exile in another country? Did he say that if the violence subsided the current regime could stay in power?

Much of the historic training in negotiation simulation has been based on Western rationality. If I do this, then he will do that. Computer programs are even available to walk negotiators through different scenarios, just as there are machines to play chess. However, and this is not irrelevant, negotiations take place between human beings. For the moment, there are no formulas for emotions. Even economists, who had thought that all transactions could be quantified, are beginning to realize the importance of psychology.

Mr. Annan has enormous experience in negotiating across the globe with very different personalities. How will he try to convince the Syrians to stop the atrocities? They have their own logic, their particular rationality. Not only do we wish Mr. Annan success, but I would love to have the transcript of what was said. Peacemaking dialogue is truly the pinnacle of cross-cultural communication.

Russians elect a president; French presidential campaign in full swing; Republican primaries peak on Super Tuesday March 6. Even Geneva is getting into the act replacing Conseil d'Etat Mark Muller. We are in the season of electoral fever.

What is so exciting about campaigns and elections? There is something dramatic, even athletic about the whole process. Pierre Maudet throws his hat in the ring! Mitt Romney tries to score a knockout on Super Tuesday! The vocabulary of a boxing match is often used to describe the ebb and flow of campaigns. Interviews are brutal, the participants battered. We watch the candidates' feints and jabs. Polling technology can measure crowd reactions to debates second by second much the way judges score boxing matches blow by blow.

The recent violence in Syria continues to shock. Thousands of civilians have been killed by their own government. Leaders are supposed to protect their citizens, not bombard them. Attempts by the international community have not changed the situation. Neither the United Nations nor the Arab League has been able to persuade President Assad to stop the assaults. He seems impervious to any form of outside intervention, taking advantage of his privileged relations with Russia and China to divide the international community.

Amid the harsh days of winter chills while waiting for the warmth of spring to finally arrive, amid the slow-starting election campaigns in France and the United States that have so far failed to ignite any flames of enthusiasm, a sports story has erupted in the U.S that has warmed hearts around the globe. Jeremy Lin has created a sensation. The New York Times had 11 articles about him in five days; Linsanity is front page news.

The United States is a world power; it has a population of over 300 million; it has the world's largest GDP at $14.58 trillion, a military budget of over $700 billion that dwarfs the next 12 countries in the world combined with a leading role in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO) collective defense. In spite of the recent financial crisis, rising debt and high unemployment, no one would deny the power of the United States, even in relative decline.

For an athlete, the importance of sports is evident. For the non-athlete, the importance of sports is debatable. For the sociologist, the importance of sports is undeniable.

Servette FC is part of Geneva's community. Although the number of people who attend games is relatively small, a large segment of Geneva residents follows the trials and tribulations of their home team, both on and off the field. Servette unifies all elements of Geneva's cosmopolitan population. As for Xamax and Sion, they are integral parts of a sense of belonging of entire regions; the Valais roots for Sion, the Jura is (was?) behind Xamax.

Two heavyweight competitions have and are taking place. The match between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal in the finals of the Australian Open was breathtaking in intensity, physical endurance and tennis mastery. For close to six hours, the two battled in a fashion unseen in the history of tennis. What a pleasure to watch, what a tribute to sports.

The revelation that Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney had a Swiss bank account has once again raised the specter of Switzerland's U.S. image as a place for rich Americans to hide their money.

The former Governor of Massachusetts' posting of his tax forms not only indicated great wealth, suddenly a sin in a country where rags to riches has always been part of the American dream, but, even, worse, the manner in which he placed his money further tarnishes his image. First, he was accused of working for Bain Capital and firing people instead of creating jobs.

Two recent events in Switzerland highlight its specificity as well as the difficulty in navigating between two distinctive poles. The resignation of Philipp Hildebrand as President of the Swiss National Bank made headlines around the world. In essence, while he did not break a specific rule, he admitted to a certain moral error in judgment concerning his private banking affairs. In a larger sense, the question raised is the relationship between his private life and his public function. Whereas in the United States public figures are subject to intense scrutiny by the press, Swiss journalists go out of their way to respect privacy.

In this specific case, Hildebrand  and/or his wife was/were accused of using his public position for personal profit. Surprisingly, for the moment, Switzerland does not require public figures like Hildebrand to put their resources in a blind trust just as local politicians are not supposed to vote on issues related to their outside professional work. The private life of a very public figure was opened to national examination.

My friends in the financial sector keep reminding me that history is the last 15 seconds on the Reuters screen. And I am aware that we are living in accelerated time. However, a short reflection on the presidential campaign of 2008 compared to where we are today is not without interest.

On the Democratic Party side, the primaries between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were riveting. A most qualified woman, former First Lady and New York Senator was battling a dynamic, articulate African-American. History was being challenged. If either got the nomination, if either won the presidency, history would be made and a new era would begin in the United States. A sense of excitement was palpable; a transformation was taking place; the young and many of the disenfranchised were energized.

"Let the games begin" is an expression usually associated with the Olympic Games. However, it might also be used for the United States primary season. The Republican primaries began on Tuesday with 6 Republicans competing in the Iowa primary to be followed on January 10 in New Hampshire. More than 1,700 local caucuses will be held on Tuesday in a state with a population of 3 million and 6 electoral votes, 1.1% of the total electoral votes.

December 11, 2011 witnessed a major re-organization of the Geneva tram system. Some lines have disappeared - Oh where oh where has my Number 13 gone? - while others are supposed to be operating with greater frequency. I have started meticulously timing my waits for the Number 12 since it is the only line left into the city from Carouge.

Someone took away my tram 13 in exchange, they said, for better service. I am constantly checking if that is actually happening. And I won't even mention the sprints at Plainpalais to change from Number 12 to 15! There is more physical action there running to change trams than in my gym on the treadmills.

The Swiss Parliament has just chosen the country's seven Federal Councilors. The United States' Grand Electors will be voting for the President of the United States in the autumn. (The similarities in the two processes show how the Constitution of Switzerland mirrors the U.S. Constitution and how both countries shy away from having the citizens directly choose their leaders.) Beside the technical, electoral process, what is also fascinating is how fundamentally conservative are both electors. The center-right almost always wins national elections.

Winter is approaching. The occupiers of the Occupy Wall Street movement (OWS) could be running out of steam because of the cold. Camping out in downtown New York in December is a true test of political fortitude. In addition, impressive muscular interventions by police have cleared out several of the protest sights across the United States. Many of the loyal are now behind bars.

United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was in Geneva for a short visit this week. The presence of the U.S. Secretary of State anywhere in the world is a major event. Those who complained about security measures at the United Nations Office and inconveniences in its neighborhood should be reminded of the power and importance of such events. Like it or not, Mrs. Clinton represents the world's major power - whatever that means - and is an important actor in her own right. Imagine the level of excitement if President Obama came to Geneva!

Mrs. Clinton "dropped by" Geneva in the midst of a whirlwind European tour, graphically described in the December 7 Tribune de Genève.

The Cold War is supposed to be over. Unlike formal wars, the Cold War was not ended by a peace treaty, but there has been general agreement that with the end of the Soviet Union, the tensions between Russia and the United States are not what they were for over 40 years. No more Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD), no more sirens in New York City with terrified school children trembling under their desks, no more pounding shoes on the table at the United Nations, no more massive buildup of troops in Central Europe. Welcome to détente, welcome to looking in Putin's eyes to see a man we can do business with, welcome to resetting the button between the two countries.

All of this comes to mind with three recent events. The death of Svetlana Stalina, the only daughter and last surviving child of Josef Stalin, brought back headlines about the cruel dictator still revered by certain people. Indeed, his statute remained in the town square of his birthplace Gori in Georgia until June 2010, over 50 years after his death in 1953. (There were confrontations about its removal. I am still waiting for the removal of Lenin's tomb from the Kremlin.)