25/11/2016

November 8 Shocks and Aftershocks

The unexpected result of the November 8 election in the United States continues to have aftershocks. And they will continue for a long time. Just as the implosion of the Soviet Union, September 11, 2001 attacks and the Arab Spring changed world politics, the election of Donald Trump represents a transformative event.

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15/11/2016

We Blew It

I admit it; I blew it. I was convinced that Hillary Clinton would win. The election of Donald Trump is the culmination of a series of mistakes by experts, media, pollsters, politicians and diplomats. In other words, the intellectual class got it all wrong. But not only did it get it wrong on this election, it also got it wrong in predicting the end of the Soviet Union and the Arab Spring. 0 for 3; in baseball terms three strikes means you’re out.

This demands serious reflection.

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04/11/2016

Trying to Find Perspective on Aleppo and Mosul

As the bombing of Aleppo continues and the fighting around Mosul intensifies, Western leaders and the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights have denounced blatant violations of international humanitarian law. Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein, the High Commissioner, recently condemned the indiscriminate bombing of civilians in eastern Aleppo as possible war crimes. While no official figures are available, the United Nations has said that nearly 200 civilians have been killed by the Islamic State outside Mosul. A photographer for The New York Times wrote almost a full-page story in the October 27 edition about being wounded while accompanying Iraqi counter terrorism forces pushing towards Mosul. The horrors of the wars in Iraq and Syria are being more than documented.

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