Le blog de Daniel Warner

How to evaluate the outcome of the 16 day U.S. government shutdown? Most “referees” judge that President Obama won by a knockout. “Republicans backed down,” we are told. “The President got an extension of the budget and the debt ceiling without caving in to Tea Party demands. In addition, Republicans are being blamed. No contest.”

There are, however, more losers than just the Republican Party. The image of the United States as the world leader was seriously damaged. How can the rest of the world rely on the dollar as the global currency when the Congress cannot responsibly manage its national budget and debt ceiling?

A question making the rounds during the shutdown in the U.S. asks: “What’s the difference between terrorists and the Republican Tea Party?” Answer: “At least you can negotiate with terrorists.” Having failed to overturn President Obama’s overhauling of the country’s health system, the Republicans are now threatening to have the U.S. default on all its payments on October 17. The Suicide Caucus, as it is known, failed over 40 times to pass bills to repeal Obamacare; now House Republicans are trying to defund the entire government.   

Their motive is that any form of national health insurance is leading the country down the slippery slope of socialism, and obviously ruin. And from this position they will not budge. Led by a group of 80 or so members of Congress from safe districts, they are willing to not only furlough 800,000 federal government workers but on October 17 to have the government default on its debt obligations, which will send shockwaves throughout the world.

Whether in Turkey or Brazil, “the street’s the place to go” (from a song by the Weather Girls). Social media has allowed hundreds of thousands to protest against government policies throughout the two countries. But questions remain about the identity of the protesters, what they are protesting against, and the outcomes desired.

There were two specific issues during the 1968 protests in the United States: ending racial segregation and ending the Vietnam War. Although the protests were not necessarily identical, these were the fundamental issues around which students and sympathizers coalesced. Many of the same people participated in both protest movements, united by the two progressive causes. (I will ignore those cynics who said that the real issue behind the May 1968 movements was for students to get out of final exams.)

            The stunning results of Oskar Freysinger in the recent election in Valais, the surprising showing of Team Stronach in Austria, the Tea Party in the United States, and the unexpected success of the Five Star Movement of Beppe Grillo in Italy point to a recent populist emergence. While the causes of this emergence are not difficult to elaborate – high rates of unemployment, lack of leadership at the local, national and international levels, poor economic results, growing insecurity – the very nature of populism is not easy to describe.